Why understanding risk for different populations can reduce cardiovascular deaths

  • July 18, 2024
Why understanding risk for different populations can reduce cardiovascular deaths

New research led by Kim van Daalen looks at the importance of ensuring risk scores for cardiovascular disease match local needs

The incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) – the number one cause of death globally – can be reduced significantly by understanding the risk faced by different populations better, according to a new study.

Identifying individuals at high risk and intervening to reduce risk before an event occurs underpins the majority of national and international primary prevention guidelines. 

Cardiovascular diseases were responsible for an estimated 19·8 million deaths in 2022, of which most occurred in low-income and middle-income countries.  That makes the accurate assessment of individuals’ risk  more crucial than ever.

Yet, CVD  risk for individuals can currently be overestimated or underestimated in certain populations depending on the risk score applied, resulting in sub-optimal primary prevention, says the new study, published in Lancet Global Health last night. The study emphasises the need for healthcare providers to consider the specific characteristics of their target population when choosing a cardiovascular disease risk score for primary prevention. By selecting an appropriate risk score, clinicians can improve the accuracy of risk assessments and ensure better-informed  decisions, ultimately enhancing outcomes in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

The review and framework development, led by Gates Cambridge Scholar Dr Kim van Daalen, and based on her PhD at the University of Cambridge, looks at the large number of cardiovascular risk scores around the world.

While it focuses predominantly on cardiovascular disease risk scores used in general populations for primary prevention across different geographical settings, it acknowledges that there are several population-specific or patient-specific risk scores, although the latter have predominantly been developed in Europe. They include SCORE-OP which estimates cardiovascular disease risk in people aged 65–79 years. Other risk scores include those that measure risk in people with type 2 diabetes or for those with a history of a particular form of heart failure.

The publication says that the variation of risk scores across countries and regions and in risk predictors and methodology mean risk should be assessed based on the local population and its needs and should be regularly reviewed.

It provides an up-to-date overview of guideline-recommended CVD risk scores from various global, regional and national contexts. It evaluates their comparative characteristics and qualities, offering a valuable framework for clinicians in selecting the most appropriate risk score for their target population.

Dr van Daalen [2018] did her PhD in Public Health and Primary Care (Environmental Epidemiology) which focused on environmental risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, with a particular focus on South Asia. 

*Picture credit: 3D human heart and circulatory system illustration by Bryan Brandenburg, courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Latest News

Exploring the ideological brain

A Gates Cambridge Scholar is launching her ‘startingly original’ book on political neuroscience with an appearance at two major festivals and a workshop at Bill Gates Sr. House. Leor Zmigrod’s book, The Ideological Brain: A Radical Science of Susceptible Minds, is published on 20th March by Viking. It is described by the psychologist and psycholinguist […]

The coming microstructure revolution

Hana Butler Gutiérrez likes tiny things, but she wants to make a big impact. For her MPhil in Micro- and Nanotechnology Enterprise she is looking to deepen her understanding of how micro- and nanostructures influence material performance, with a focus on scalable manufacturing techniques. She believes that microstructures have the potential to revolutionise industries by […]

The plight of the bumblebee

Insects are in decline globally, and pollinator loss is of particular concern. It is said that one in three bites of food we eat is thanks to pollination by bees, underlining the importance of these buzzing creatures. In a time of changing landscapes and politics, bees find themselves in trouble. Meadows are being paved into […]

Arts impact: Gates Cambridge at 25

Gates Cambridge Scholars work in every corner of the cultural industries, contributing to new ideas in the world of art, to different ways of viewing the role of music in society and different ways of telling stories. Visual arts When it comes to the visual arts, for instance, several Scholars have played an important role […]